Tourism demand is undergoing a structural transformation driven by two key factors: climate change and overtourism.
These factors are no longer external to the tourism system. Today, they directly influence how, when, and where people travel.
Climate Risk as a Decision-Making Factor
The data show that the weather has become a key factor in travel planning:
- 74% of travelers take climate risk into account
- 68% avoid destinations with adverse conditions
- 31% have changed or canceled their trips
In addition:
- 55% believe that some destinations are too hot during certain times of the year
- 55% view climate uncertainty as a source of stress when planning
This indicates a shift toward anticipatory behavior.
Impact on Tourism Offerings
Climate change also affects operations:
- 24% of accommodations have experienced disruptions due to extreme weather events
This confirms a simultaneous impact on both demand and supply.
Demand Redistribution
Travelers are changing their decisions regarding time and place:
- 43% avoid overcrowded destinations
- 42% travel during the off-season
- 44% try not to contribute to overtourism
- 37% are looking to reduce pressure on destinations
There has been a shift from reducing individual impact toward the redistribution of tourist flows.
Impact on Destinations
Tourism continues to be viewed positively overall:
- 60% believe it has a positive impact
However, significant challenges remain:
- Congestion: 40%
- Waste: 37%
- Increase in the cost of living: 31%
This highlights the need for more balanced management.
Shift levers
The report identifies key mechanisms for influencing behavior:
- Financial incentives: 47%
- Travel Tips on a Budget: 45%
- Clear communication: 41%
- Recommendations on when to travel: 40%
- Loyalty programs: 38%
These levers help reduce friction in the decision-making process.
Systemic Implications
The tourism system must adapt to:
- Greater volatility in demand
- Changes in Seasonality
- Pressure on More Resilient Destinations
Conclusion
Tourism is evolving toward a model shaped by structural factors.
Future competitiveness will depend on the ability to account for climate risk, manage demand distribution, and provide reliable and transparent information.
Read the full report here.
